If you’re about to turn 65 and starting to think about Medicare, you might be a little hesitant to enroll because of the upcoming elections.
After all, elections tend to be a shaky time for government agencies.
A change of power can result in budget cuts and regulation changes. Guess who has to deal with the complexities of these changes?
It’s always us, the people.
To make matters worse, there are various rumors going around about how this election will affect Medicare. Some say Medicare will run out of money if the Democrats stay in charge, while others say a Republican victory will force you to retire late.
So what’s the truth?
In this article, we’ll go over what’s true and what isn’t, and we’ll also end with how you should treat Medicare concerning the elections—so you don’t make unnecessary mistakes that can cost you.
The main point is this: You don’t need to wait for the elections to sign up for Medicare, because the elections themselves will have no immediate impact on your Medicare costs.
Below, we’ll explain why.
The Presidential Candidates
Let’s start with a quick overview of the candidates’ stances on Medicare.
What is Joe Biden’s Stance on Medicare?
Joe Biden is a big supporter of Medicare and Social Security. He’s very vocal about his support, and changes to Medicare during his term largely reflect this stance.
In his State of the Union speech on March 7, Biden stated, “If anyone here tries to cut Social Security, Medicare, or raise the retirement age, I will stop you.”
One of the most significant changes to Medicare during his term was the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act.
The Inflation Reduction Act strengthened Medicare, lowered drug prices, removed cost-sharing for vaccinations, simplified Medicare Part D brackets, and capped people’s out-of-pocket spending for drugs at $2,000 (taking effect in 2025).
In a nutshell: Biden tends to favor tax increases to improve programs like Medicare.
What is Donald Trump’s Stance on Medicare?
Donald Trump supports both Medicare and Social Security, despite some Republicans calling for spending cuts on these.
Donald Trump has stated that “Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security.”
However, Donald Trump has consistently called for the repealing of the Affordable Care Act (aka ObamaCare), another piece of legislation that has strengthened Medicare. He has also stated that he wants to cut “theft and the bad management of entitlements” from Medicare and Social Security.
In a nutshell: Trump tends to favor tax cuts over strengthening programs like Medicare.
What Medicare Issues Should The Candidates Address?
For now, it looks like neither candidate will repeal Medicare anytime soon.
If you take a look at both campaigns, you’ll find that both candidates are focusing on other pressing matters (such as foreign policy).
However, this doesn’t mean that there aren’t any Medicare issues they need to address eventually.
Here are some of the big ones coming up:
Medicare Running Out of Funds by 2031
You may have heard the rumor that Medicare will “run out of money” by 2031.
While that’s not 100% accurate, there are very real problems that Medicare may have to address in the near future..
One is that more baby boomers are reaching age 65 and enrolling in Medicare. CMS says there were 65.7 million Medicare enrollees in 2023, and expects this number to shoot up to 76.4 million in 2031.
Another “concern” for Medicare’s budget is that with better healthcare, people live longer. The USA has seen a steady increase in life expectancy over the years. In 2024, life expectancy is at 79.25 and is projected to reach 80.51 by 2031. While this is great news, it does mean more stress on Medicare’s budget.
Finally, healthcare treatments are becoming better, but also more expensive. Many people like Medicare the way it is right now. However, if treatments become more expensive, some people predict that Medicare may have to change its cost-sharing methods to stay afloat.
All of these contribute to Medicare’s financial worries.
Most people also don’t pay premiums for Medicare Part A (the part of Medicare that covers inpatient and hospital costs). Instead, it’s funded by taxes. This part of Medicare is expected to run out of its trust fund by 2031.
While this isn’t one of the main battlegrounds for the upcoming election, here are some suggestions that have been made to resolve this issue:
- Raising Payroll Taxes – President Biden has proposed raising Medicare taxes for incomes above $400,000. The current rate is 3.8%, and he proposes raising it to 5%. Some Democrats support this move, while most Republicans are against it. There has been no action regarding this proposal yet.
- Increasing the Medicare Eligibility Age – While Trump hasn’t addressed this issue, the other Republican candidates Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, have suggested raising the eligibility age for Medicare from 65 to 67 or 70. However, no action has been taken regarding this yet.
Both parties aren’t focusing on this issue yet, but it’s expected to make more headlines as 2031 draws closer.
If nothing changes, some people expect Medicare Part A to see a big coverage decrease when its trust fund runs out in 2031.
Note: if you’re worried about Medicare raising the eligibility age, stick around because we’ll show you what you can do at the end of this article.
Medicare Advantage Plans Cutting Perks
This is another Medicare issue that may or may not affect the current elections.
Under Biden’s administration, insurance companies providing Medicare Advantage Plans have seen a lot of new regulations.
These regulations added more requirements for MA plans, added public star ratings for plans (rated by CMS), and lessened how brokers can be biased toward high-commission MA plans. The CMS budget for MA plans in 2025 increased by 3.7%, which, according to Yahoo Finance, was lower than expected (and lower than inflation rates).
These changes are bringing down the stocks of insurance companies offering MA plans.
In theory, these new regulations should favor the people enrolling in these plans.
However, some people are afraid these changes could backfire if MA plans lose too much money. They say that insurance companies selling Medicare Advantage Plans may start reducing their coverage to stay afloat.
While there aren’t clear battle lines drawn on this issue yet, many people expect Joe Biden and the Democrats to stand by the regulation changes.
The question is whether Trump and the Republicans will oppose these regulations, arguing that stifling MA plans causes them to lessen their coverage.
What Should You Do? A Practical Guide to Medicare During the 2024 Election Season
This election is gearing up to be a very close one.
There are so many rumors flying around, but the truth is that Medicare is NOT going to change anytime soon, regardless of the election result.
How do we know?
Because every time changes to Medicare are passed, it takes years before it goes into effect.
Some examples include the following:
- Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act – Passed in 2003, took effect on Jan 1, 2006
- Affordable Care Act – Passed in 2010, most provisions became effective by 2014, others by 2020
- Inflation Reduction Act – Passed in 2022, but the changes to Medicare Part D were gradual (some changes taking effect in 2024 and more in 2025)
This shows that if you’re turning 65 this year or the next, it’s unlikely you will be affected by any big changes to Medicare brought in by the election.
It’s a good idea to stay up-to-date on any significant changes to Medicare that are on the horizon. But don’t let the election rumors get to you and cause you to make decisions based on false rumors.
Right now, the best thing you can do is to learn more about Medicare and find out when you should enroll to avoid penalties.
When Can You Enroll in Medicare?
Most people become eligible for Medicare around the time they turn 65.
You have an Initial Enrollment Period (IEP), which runs from three months before the month you turn 65 to three months after the month you turn 65.
During this period, you should enroll in Medicare Parts A and B (Original Medicare) if you don’t have creditable coverage.
If you don’t have creditable coverage and miss this Initial Enrollment Period, you may incur penalties on your Medicare Part B costs.
If you’re penalized, instead of paying $174.7/month for Medicare Part B (2024 rate), you’ll pay an extra 10% for every year you delay enrollment.
These are permanent penalties, so be careful not to get stuck with them.
This extra 10% will be added to your Medicare Part B premiums for as long as you have Medicare (for many people, this is the rest of their lives).
That’s why, no matter what happens in the elections, stay informed.
If you’re eligible for Medicare and don’t have creditable coverage, enroll during your IEP and you shouldn’t incur any permanent penalties.
Unless some new legislation that defies all expectations is passed, nothing that happens in the elections should be worse than the late enrollment penalty.
Note: Read our Medicare Fees article to learn more about Medicare penalties.
Conclusion: The Best Solution For Dealing With Medicare Changes
Should you wait until the elections play out to choose your Medicare plan?
The choice is yours, but nothing will be happening that will drastically affect your Medicare choice. So there is no benefit to waiting.
But no matter what happens, the BEST solution to dealing with Medicare changes is fully understanding how Medicare works in the first place.
This way, you won’t be swayed by rumors that try to get you to vote Blue or Red.
When you fully understand how Medicare works, any upcoming changes won’t scare you, but you’ll know exactly how to deal with them.
You’ll be aware of what you need to sign up for, when you need to sign up, and how to avoid costly penalties.
That’s why Medicare education is so important.
If you’d like to chat with one of our licensed insurance agents, you can call +1 877-360-6565 (TTY: 771) and we’ll help you find the right plan fit for you.
Alternatively, If you’re looking for a place to start, check out our free Medicare workshop. In it, we go over everything people turning 65 need to know about Medicare. It’ll help you sign up properly, and show you how to choose the right plan fit for you.